The Good, Bad, & Ugly Report: Midterm Edition

Larry Fedora sums up “Welp” in one photo — photo by Ethan Hyman, News & Observer

Stop me if you’ve heard this one: UNC’s defense keeps the team in the game while the anemic offense provides little help until the thin defense just wears down and a relatively tight game is blown open. For the second straight week, the Carolina defense allowed the Tar Heels to hang around with zero support from the offense before giving out of gas and allowing #21 Notre Dame to coast to a 33-10 victory.

As I sat in Kenan Stadium through the first rain to fall in central North Carolina in weeks, I was thinking about what I would write for this piece that was substantially different than last week, and the answer is nothing much, frankly. In many ways, the game was a carbon copy of the Georgia Tech game, with offensive ineptitude, puzzling play-calling, and some defensive improvement before just being ground to a nub and falling apart. Thus in the absence of anything original to write, I decided to do a GBU Report on the entire season thus far, so here goes:

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks: BAD

Trend: Downward

Three weeks ago, Chazz Surratt looked like he was putting it all together. He easily won the starting job outright from Brandon Harris and had thrown for 6 touchdowns and run for four more until he threw an ill-advised interception – his first of the year – against Duke that was returned for a touchdown and snuffed out Carolina’s hopes versus the Devils. Since then, he hasn’t been the same quarterback. He is no longer sharp or comfortable in the pocket and with zero running game, he simply can’t do it all. He had one flash of the Surratt from the first three games in the drive that ended with the touchdown pass to Anthony Ratliff-Williams, but otherwise he has just looked lost for two games now. Fedora did pull Surratt for Harris for one series against Georgia Tech, but Harris promptly threw a bad interception and the impression one gets is the Brandon Harris experience has come to a close in Chapel Hill. The quarterback play must get better for UNC to have a chance but with a Swiss cheese offensive line and 5th and 6th team wide receivers, that’s going to be a tall order.

Offensive Line: UGLY

Trend: Downward

It’s one thing to be ravaged by injuries, which the UNC offensive line certainly has. It’s another thing to just be awful at doing your job, which is where we find the Carolina offensive line. Sure there are lots of guys pressed into service meaning there is zero depth but the O-line is flat-out missing assignments and committing back-breaking penalties. They cannot establish the line of scrimmage and as such have relegated the running game to an afterthought. The right side of the line – Surratt’s blind side as a lefty QB – has been particularly awful. I don’t know why opposing defenses just don’t line up and blitz every stinking down. The Carolina O-line will be overwhelmed and there’s only a 50-50 chance that even if Surratt identifies the blitz that his receivers can catch the ball. Any hope for improvement on the offensive side of the ball must start at the offensive line.

Receivers: BAD

Trend: Steady

Injuries have robbed this group of pretty much every playmaker, save Ratliff. It’s hard to get on these guys too much but depth only takes you so far and when 4 of your top 5 receivers are lost for the season after 2 of your top 3 receivers from last season are playing on Sundays, what are you gonna do?

Kicking: GOOD

Trend: Downward

Tom Sheldon has been a real weapon for UNC this season. When your punter has to be a primary offensive weapon, that’s telling. And, of course, since he was doing things well for the Heels, he was injured on Saturday versus the Irish. Freeman Jones started out looking decent after replacing Nick Weiler but like everything else on the offensive side of the ball, he has fallen off the last few weeks and Fedora’s lack of confidence in him is evident.

DEFENSE

Defensive Front: GOOD

Trend: Improving

Despite losing some of its best player in Andre Smith for the season, the defensive front has improved significantly. Cayson Collins has emerged as a leader and the defense has been getting some pressure in the backfield and even some sacks and tackles for loss. The defensive front has shown the growth they were expected to make and if the offense had kept the pace of the first three games, with the defensive improvement, UNC would be a team starting to bring it all together.  Instead the offensive regression has left the defense stranded and unable to keep the Heels in the game when the offense can’t generate points or time of possession. This unit gets a rating of good mainly because they are playing to the maximum of their potential.

Defensive backs: BAD

Trend: Improving

Like the defensive front, the defensive backs have improved week over week. They are still susceptible to getting beat and no UNC fan is ever comfortable on 3rd down, regardless of the distance, but M.J. Stewart continues to play lights-out and Myles Dorn and Donnie Miles continue to improve, even though Miles left Saturday’s game with an injury and did not return. Nevertheless this group has gone from awful to meh which is a significant improvement from the first two weeks. All in all, you really cannot ask any more of the defense than what they have given you in the past three weeks.

INTANGIBLES

Attitude: GOOD

Trend: Steady

There are some things you see when you’re actually in the stadium, as I was on Saturday. I watched the sideline intently, along with the interactions between players and coaches. For the most part, the UNC sideline appears to still be pretty positive. I did not see players with heads down (until late in the game) nor did I see arguing or bickering. For a team that’s 1-5, those are good things. You do wonder, however, how long that will last as the Ls keep piling up.

Coaching: BAD

Trend: Downward

Look, I understand there are three things many people think they can do: teach school, do hair, and call offensive plays. I also remember from my coaching days of why do people think that you would call plays or play players that don’t give you a chance at winning? As if you would rather lose a game than play the player the coaches in the stands think should be playing. And, to borrow from Roy, I have as much college football coaching experience as Wanda. That said, some of the play-calling seems a little bizarre and ill-suited for UNC’s depleted personnel set. The shotgun handoff that cost the Heels a safety in a 14-7 game is one that comes to mind, as is the pass play on 3rd-and-less than a yard early in the game. That pretty much tells you what Fedora’s confidence is in his offensive line to not trust them to get 18 inches. On the other hand, it seems that with all the injuries and people new to and out of position that the playbook has had to really be trimmed down. And if your O-line can’t open holes or protect a QB, or your receivers can’t catch, it really doesn’t matter what you call. All we do know is, what the Heels are doing isn’t working and Fedora readily admits he doesn’t have many answers.

The long and short of it is, the UNC football season at the halfway point has been far worse than the worst-case scenario. The Heels have lost 8 starters to injury, 15 total players for the season, and in many ways seems to be regressing from week-to-week. Larry Fedora seems to be at a loss for what to do to slow the bleeding. What was going to be a rebuilding season in the first place has turned into a dumpster fire and it’s hard to find more than 2 wins remaining in the back half of the season. At this point a bowl is likely out of the question so the focus needs to be on being competitive week to week and improving each game. But four of UNC’s last 6 games are against ranked teams and three of them are on the road, so it will be tough sledding.

Meanwhile, let’s be realistic: there are a number of guys who might have been playing this year who are playing on Sundays or were drafted by NFL teams. And Carolina has already lost 8 starters – STARTERS – for the season, with two more who left the game on Saturday, while no other team in the ACC has lost more than five total. So let’s please leave the Fire Fedora train in the station. This has been the perfect storm of crap-ola that it’s not reasonable for any coach to know what to do with. Fedora has brought four bowls and two first-place division finishes to Chapel Hill in five years, most of which occurred while on NCAA sanction. He has earned a pass for this season, especially in light of the debilitating injuries. Again, UNC needs to groom Surratt and get better each week, especially on the offensive side, and that will help turn the worst-case scenario into a better one.